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 Seth Klarman Says Markets Are Too Bubbly

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Posted on 03-27-14 1:32 PM     [Snapshot: 118]     Reply [Subscribe]
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There should be a short term correction in the near future but in no way shape of form do I see another market crash in the near term. The risks in the junk bond issuance and credit quality are no where close to what we had in 07/08 and the underlying fundamentals of the economy, the credit worthiness are strong. The structural integrity of the markets are also strong. A few companies are overvalued, agreed but considering the facts that companies who were hording cash for years and now trying to open up their coffers tells me that there is more growth to be had in future. There might as well be bubbles forming, but as we all know, it takes few years for them to burst. So, enjoy while it lasts and try not be the last one holding the "hot potato".
 
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Posted on 04-10-14 8:38 PM     [Snapshot: 426]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I think there is value for every stock at a certain price..We just can't figure out all the time. I look for penalty shot..without a goal keeper scenario these days...Unless I'm drunk..I won't be missing the free post..JVA - is one of those..@ the moment..as I said..there's always a value --but "certain time" is what matters.
 
Posted on 04-15-14 9:43 PM     [Snapshot: 524]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Nepboy, how is market treating your stocks? I started JVA at 7.9, today it is 6.8. pretty red - my screen..i had to add a lot more JVA today under 6.8 to bring my cost down to 6.95. When it reaches 8.5 to 10..I will be out. What's up with yours?

There is another one I bought- a very good software company that deals with sending "SECURED" files...their revenue has grown 10 out of 11 times in the last 11 years..GSB is the name of the company...I bought the stocks at 2.38...and still cheap..I'll be out when it reaches 3.5 to 4. They're hiring people in the "Sales" area..and the best thing about the company...their cost of good sold is TINY.......so..more revenue will increase profitability and few months ago...they've partnered with a big firm who'll help them sell their product...and their product is "access to secured data"..I know how insane managers become in the name of "secured data"...PGP (heavily used in corporations to encrypt/decrypt) data..was bought by Symantec few years ago...so this "niche" industry is solid money maker for those who know how to handle data - of course -in a secured way..
 
Posted on 04-16-14 3:45 PM     [Snapshot: 560]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Most of mining stocks such as AG, EXK, RIOM etc are in red zone, down about 5 - 15% from where I bought but I am bullish on silver on long-term so not worried much at this point. I even have small position of USLV, so you can think how bullish I am on silver.

Regarding software security, FEYE has been in my watch list for few months, its down more than 50% since its last months high of $97. DATA is also another great company for BI reporting which has been down. Probably these are still overvalued so not sure if this is a good entry point or these are still falling knifes.

Yes, data security has been a hot topics again since the Target's data breach in December. GSB looks a great company, thanks for the alert. I will consider adding some shares in my portfolio.

BTW, I came across CERE yesterday but have not got any chance to check in detail. looks like this is trading below cash value now, what do you think about this?

Oh.. couple more, RIHT and FNJN are two stocks I am also watching, some people hate these companies as they call them 'Patent Troll' as they make money filing lawsuits but I do not care that part, they have a good business model (as FNJN has 100s of patents and RIHT has considerable amount of agreements with lots of intellectual properties holders) so this may be right time to enter. Anyone following these two or have any input on these?


 
Posted on 04-16-14 7:59 PM     [Snapshot: 584]     Reply [Subscribe]
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From my limited knowledge -

1. Passing all the miners. I'd rather buy stocks of companies that sell equipment or services or whatever to the miners so that productivity increases. AYSI/HIIT and even TEXC comes to mind

2. FEYE - Not yet profitable. I don't look at unprofitable companies regardless of how much revenue they're growing.

3. DATA- Too expensive to give this company the value of 3 billion which only made 7 million for the whole year of 2013 according to their annual report. If they made 30 million that would be 10 P/E. At 7 million that is more than 40 P/E. Let it drop in the 20's and I'll think..I'll think because the company has been profitable but at this price...I won't touch it. I wonder who actually decided to pay $90 for it.

-----I re-read my post and just laughed ---P/E is not more than 40..but more than freaking 400...I like companies with P/E of less than 15 (Peter Lynch, Buffett, Klarman- they all did just that- most of the time). http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp

We have been growing rapidly in recent periods. Our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2013 , 2012 and 2011 were $232.4 million , $127.7 million and $62.4 million , respectively. We increased the total number of customer accounts that had purchased our products to approximately 17,000 as of December 31, 2013 from over 7,700 at December 31, 2011 . During this period, we significantly increased the size of our workforce, particularly in our sales and marketing and research and development ("R&D") organizations, expanded internationally, and invested in our operational infrastructure to support our growth. As a result of our significant investments in growth, our net income did not grow in a manner commensurate with our total revenues. Our net income for the years ended December 31, 2013 , 2012 and 2011 was $7.1 million , $1.4 million and $3.4 million , respectively.

4 - CERE - I like this one for what they do..However, let them be profitable first..and I won't mind paying $3 per share vs current price of 69 cents. Show me the profit and I'll buy your shares- is kind of my motto.

RIHT and FNJN - Since my mind is very limited on understanding things..I don't want to dig through what patent means what and how the lawyers are going to get the money. How the judge will decide. I think you have to go through all these to figure out.


Hope you don't mind my negative comments. All from my limited understanding of the market..and I can always be wrong..By the way..I sold all of my TEXC shares today..and I feel that I may have made a huge mistake..lol
Last edited: 16-Apr-14 08:00 PM
Last edited: 16-Apr-14 08:14 PM

 
Posted on 04-17-14 4:13 PM     [Snapshot: 630]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I think David Morgan, Rick Rule , James Dines, Jim Sinclair, Ted Butler, Eric Sprott, David Schectman et all have brainwashed or hypnotized my mind so much that I will not be able to give up mining sector so soon :)

Regarding FEYE and DATA, yes their PE is in middle 3 digits which looks insane for now but we have to remember that they are like bright students who have just graduated but have not got full opportunity to demonstrate their capabilities yet. Another one is LNKD, I think LinkedIn has huge upside potential but they are still overvalued, I would consider buying if these 3 stocks if go down ~30% from this point.

I have bought some RIHT, its a pure casino play without going to Vegas.

I485, Lopchandai et all, where have you been? you guys had made great call on some of the Bio tech stocks in the past. Some of them are down or back to where you had alerted, just wondering if this is good entry point for ZGNX, CBMX, KIPS etc.. or are they still a falling knife?

 
Posted on 04-19-14 9:50 PM     [Snapshot: 678]     Reply [Subscribe]
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@Nepboy -" David Morgan, Rick Rule , James Dines, Jim Sinclair, Ted Butler, Eric Sprott, David Schectman" I know of none of these people.

But I did read Chapter 8- Intelligent Investor. When you get a chance - do so -my humble request. The book mentions about a " but we have to remember that they are like bright students who have just graduated but have not got full opportunity to demonstrate their capabilities " - well the book mentions about "first boys" back in 2000. You know what happened? a $250 stock similar to the ones you've mentioned- went down and was selling for freaking 25 cents after 2 years...but again..the company was bought by yahoo for $1.65. Makes sense?
 
Posted on 04-19-14 11:21 PM     [Snapshot: 719]     Reply [Subscribe]
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In my opinion,FB is a buy here.
 
Posted on 04-19-14 11:40 PM     [Snapshot: 727]     Reply [Subscribe]
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FB may be a buy..coz they're going into 'remittance' biz..but i'd wait..20 billion for whatsapp..is too much..never mind..i'm a micro cap guy..so it is all up to you. peter lynch and you can pull up any other data..historically- microcaps have performed better than any other caps
 
Posted on 04-19-14 11:54 PM     [Snapshot: 729]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Micro caps underperform too, for example: so far this year. Importance is to know when to stick with them and when not. But most of the beginners in investing or trading like them microcaps for the volatility and just bcoz of investor/trader smaller account size.
 
Posted on 04-20-14 12:28 AM     [Snapshot: 747]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Tell me how do u pick right industry and right stocks? How Macro works?
Been trading for last 7 years, lets see what u got to say?
 
Posted on 04-20-14 12:40 AM     [Snapshot: 765]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I thought u had some solid answers rather than saying u trade or invest on stock tips by others. Oh boy !!! The main issue of Flash Boys has not much to do with small investors anyway.
 
Posted on 04-20-14 12:42 AM     [Snapshot: 775]     Reply [Subscribe]
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you did not get my point...stock tips..you get all over the internet. picking the right tip is whole another story. When you're ready, bring it on..I'll (try) to answer, all of your doubts
Last edited: 20-Apr-14 12:47 AM

 
Posted on 04-20-14 12:49 AM     [Snapshot: 782]     Reply [Subscribe]
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that still means u don't have yr own idea about finding stocks. After 2 years of investing, u still depend on others and suppose if yr stock buddies stop giving u ideas, u wont be making money in stocks? Aint that a poor situation after reading that many books?
 
Posted on 04-20-14 1:02 AM     [Snapshot: 800]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I am not getting into f words but still I like to know yr point of view mr know it all
Tell me how do u pick right industry and right stocks? How Macro works?
 
Posted on 04-20-14 1:12 AM     [Snapshot: 811]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Now, u told me how u pick stocks,I will be so glad to know if u tell me how MACRO works?
 
Posted on 04-20-14 1:15 AM     [Snapshot: 820]     Reply [Subscribe]
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How marco works? World is filled with crazy people..like you and I..That is how marco works. Marco or Macro..But the world is filled with greed and fear. That is how macro works. 
Last edited: 20-Apr-14 01:17 AM

 
Posted on 04-20-14 9:08 AM     [Snapshot: 879]     Reply [Subscribe]
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@Obama - There is no right or wrong. Let's keep finding good stocks. Whether through tips or through your own. The intention here is to not getting 'screwed' and decades of experience mean nothing in this business of being wrong or being right. If you say yes, then I'm going to smoke a joint for everyone's success as today is 4/20 -US version of shivaratri. Happy trading
 
Posted on 04-20-14 11:52 AM     [Snapshot: 906]     Reply [Subscribe]
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SydMJ1JwUPs This 30 minute interview is worth watching
 
Posted on 04-20-14 1:03 PM     [Snapshot: 918]     Reply [Subscribe]
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@beautifool
its funny to see u deleted almost everything u wrote last night. In sober state, it probably did not even make sense to u too.
As another fellow nepali, I don't want to talk down to u. Reading books is good but it wont make u a great investor or trader. Ben grahams Intelligent Investor has been a must read in many schools and almost all the big money management firms. That alone proves reading is not the most important variable of investing success. Keep yr eyes and ears open and be humble.
Consistent returns for long term is the only hallmark of success and I can bet u there is more to it than reading books and finding stocks @ joestocks.com
Take it easy brother !!!!

 
Posted on 04-20-14 7:53 PM     [Snapshot: 951]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I am not a value investor as I used to claim. I guess we change from experience. Nothing wrong on that but change must be positive for you to find peace. And also do my own stock picking- not sure why I said only the other way last night. One of my favorite friend who has years of experience bought ERII on my recommendation. He bought 4k shares for 4.85 per share. It is a water technology company. And they have energy conservation products. The products can help conserve a lot of energy in places where you require a lot of energy as your operating cost. So, they may do well, I told him and he bought. But I myself did not because there is a "may do well" attachment. He recently made 4 times with peix so he had no fear to give it a try. I was fine with JVA and eagerly awaiting for the quatarly result of ERII - hope he does well. If the company generates substantial cash flow and revenue growth, this company will become a billion dollar company within 5 years...Because their product is useful. I guess let's continue to share ideas. Does not mean ideas will work out well. Just use it as opinion. Because getting in and getting out...that is the most difficult part and once you're in, you're locked until you're out..you never know what's in the box of chocolate kind of a deal..this is what i find. sometime you get chocolate as profit and sometime you get slap as loss. lol. but i have seen disagreements among other people too. anyway, change of topic..le bron james made an awesome investment buying some shares of liverpool football club few years ago. he must have bought those shares for very cheap because it was during the middle of recession and now liverpool is back. warren buffett was le bron jamen's financial advisor. old man knows a lot of ways to make money for his clients- mainly himself.
Last edited: 20-Apr-14 08:00 PM
Last edited: 20-Apr-14 08:44 PM

 



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